COVID-19 will have an enduring impact on trade. Rising nationalism and a push to diversify supply chains are moving countries away from reliance on China toward regional trade agreements for global trade security.
Discussions are now underway as to whether EU antitrust policies need to be relaxed in order to allow greater latitude to meet the challenge posed by Chinese mega-firms.
The announcement that trade talks in Beijing between the United States and China had been extended by a day sparked an uptick in stocks and renewed optimism that a resolution to the trade war might be in the offing. A minimal face-saving agreement should be possible before the March deadline, but this would only delay the ultimate day of reckoning. Friction points between China’s state-directed economic system and the United States’ ostensibly free market, free trade system will reassert themselves sooner rather than later.
The meeting between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping in Argentina in late November may prove to be a turning point for not only for the US-China relationship, but for global trade. Both leaders enter these discussions knowing the far more important question is whether there can be a sustainable co-existence between a Western market-driven economy with democratic ideals and a centrally-managed Chinese economy led by the Communist Party of China.
The U.S. Administration has announced yet another investigation which could result in tariffs – this time on automobiles. Given the recent flurry of trade actions, it would be understandable if they all started to blend together in the mind of observers.
The problem steels tariffs are supposed to address isn’t receiving much attention – a number of countries are undeniably engaging in unfair and even predatory trade practices in the steel and aluminum sectors which are damaging to their trade partners.
Changes are underway which could substantially diminish the relevance of export-led development strategies for countries in East Asia.
Michael Jordan’s exploits on the basketball court were legendary, but the former hoops star seems to be showing that he’s got “game” when it comes to the rules of international trade as well.
President-elect Trump announced his intention to formally withdraw the United States from the TPP agreement. So ends seven years of controversial negotiations and intense public debates over the content and anticipated consequences of the pact. Trade goes on — but other countries will try to fill the leadership space.
Trade has been a remarkable engine of economic growth and development, lifting hundreds of millions out of poverty since the birth of the modern trade system in Bretton Woods more than six decades ago. But how can a country trade sustainably, and deliver not only balanced economic benefits to its citizens, but also strengthen social capital and provide responsible environmental stewardship?
