North America’s global competitive advantage depends in large measure on maintaining a strong foundation of workforce talent. But employers with North American manufacturing and supply chains are concerned about labor market shortfalls, particularly for frontline jobs in advanced manufacturing and logistics.
After autos and auto parts, energy commodities are the largest category of traded goods in North America. The energy industry in North America is both highly integrated and interdependent. As a region, we have achieved energy self-sufficiency and have become a global energy powerhouse because we trade with one another.
Many important developments in the region’s energy market have reshaped the industry. The NAFTA renegotiation may be the chance to move closer to the goal of free trade and investment in the North American energy sector.
As NAFTA negotiations get underway, the United States and Canada face a challenging mix of issues. Some represent longstanding disputes between the two countries. Others may be new priorities for the Trump Administration and untested in trade agreements. Still others, like commitments to facilitate digital trade, both sides are ready to agree. Here’s your cheat sheet.
A NAFTA negotiation could address the “microeconomic” factors that affect trade flows would increase the level of trade between the United States and Mexico and make U.S. consumers better off, but it wouldn’t have much effect on the balance of trade. On the other hand, economic growth in Mexico would achieve that effect by stimulating demand for more U.S. products.
In 1994 – the year NAFTA went into effect – the Internet was still accessed through dial-up. Amazon, Google, and eBay were years away, while Facebook and the iPhone were a decade off. As the United States, Canada, and Mexico prepare to rethink NAFTA, they have an opportunity to write rules for digital trade, protecting North America’s lead as a digital pioneer.
Because most everything can be found online and purchased in small quantities, most consumers don’t see much difference between buying toothpaste from CVS online or purchasing an Alex Galchenyuk hockey trading card from Canada on eBay. But when the product is shipped across an international border, the “de minimis” rule is in play.
As the President engages with Congress, the public, and his Mexican and Canadian counterparts to renegotiate NAFTA, he may find it useful to consider his own 11-step formula for success. Step two: “Protect the downside, and the upside will take care of itself.”
Peru, Colombia, Chile, and Mexico have locked arms in the global competition to attract investment and take advantage of economic dynamism in Asia. The Pacific Alliance countries see NAFTA as the standard for regional competitiveness but they are prepared to take integration further, recognizing that the region is stronger competing together. For them, it’s not enough to seize existing opportunities, these countries are out to shape the playing field.
If the Trump Administration is serious about applying a 20 percent tariff on goods from Mexico to pay for new construction on a wall along the United States and Mexico, it’s the United States that will pay, not Mexico. And the bill could come in as much as 900% above cost.