The U.S. and China signed a trade deal on Jan 15. Attempting to rewire China’s economic system cannot be achieved in one pass – an agreement this ambitious would have to be built in phases. What does that mean for the future of trade deals?
As negotiations continue toward a trade agreement, President Trump and President Xi of China have imposed tariffs on each country’s products in an unprecedented trade war. If you’ve lost track of how we got here, here is a handy quick guide to recent events unfolding in the ongoing U.S.-China trade war.
If you’re in the market for a bicycle to put under the tree this year, trade policy has made your choices more complicated. New tariffs on bicycles have increased prices for U.S. importers and consumers. But a higher and more generous threshold for duty-free online purchases directly from foreign retailers can be a way to escape the tariffs — but it can be a gamble.
Ripe olives are a critical ingredient for olive oil. They’ve also been ripe with trade tension over the past two years. Spanish black olives, green olives and olive oil have all been embroiled in two recent trade disputes between the United States and the European Union (EU), resulting in higher tariffs and increased prices of Spanish olives and olive oils for U.S. consumers.
President Trump and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro announced their desire to “build a new partnership” after meeting in August, potentially through a bilateral free trade agreement. Beyond any political merits or challenges, the potential commercial benefits of a U.S.-Brazil FTA can be shown through textbook economics.
Responding to U.S. tariffs, China has imposed a 25 percent tariff on U.S. soybeans since July last year. The tariff has remained in place as leverage in the trade war – a proxy for whether China perceives progress is being made or not in the negotiations.
In response to WTO-illegal European subsidies to its aircraft industry, the U.S. administration is reportedly considering what is known as “carousel” retaliation against the EU – a regular rotation of goods targeted for tariffs, designed to impose maximum pain. The United States and Europe have been on this ride before.
With all the focus on tariffs these days, it is easy to overlook the return of another tool used to limit imports: quotas. Both quotas and tariffs are used to protect domestic industries by artificially raising prices in the domestic market. Their administration and effects, however, differ in specific ways.
California almond growers have reason to worry about access to one of their biggest export markets. The Indian government increased tariffs on U.S. shelled almonds by 20 percent and non-shelled almonds by 17 percent in June. The increased cost is forecasted to cause a five percent drop in U.S. almond exports to India, impacting the 6,800 almond growers in California, who are mostly small to medium-size, family-run enterprises.
U.S. businesses are preparing for another possible wave of tariffs while seeking product exclusions from existing tariffs on goods from China. Find out how the Trump administration is responding to these product exclusion requests, and keep track of the “tranches” or waves of tariffs announced or implemented by the administration using our graphic.